The 2025/26 Premier League season is heading to the wire. Arsenal sit on 79 points from 36 matches, while Manchester City have 74 from 35. The Gunners hold a five-point lead with a healthier goal difference, but City still have a game in hand. With two rounds of fixtures left for most clubs, the gap between champion and runner-up could come down to goal difference, goals scored, or even the head-to-head record.
Here is what UK fans need to know about the run-in: how the title can be settled, where to watch every decisive fixture, and how the betting markets are moving.
Where the title race stands
Arsenal's goal difference of +42 sits two clear of City's +40, but City leads on goals scored 72 to 68. If the two clubs finish level on points, that gap should decide the title. If everything ends tied, the head-to-head record is the next tiebreaker, and that one favours Pep Guardiola's side after a win and a draw across the season's two meetings. UK fans tracking the run-in are spreading their attention across multiple operators as markets shift week to week, and a review of sister site casinos UK is a useful starting point for understanding which brands share platforms, bonuses and payment rails behind the scenes.
Final-day scenarios
Arsenal's path is the simpler one. Mikel Arteta's side now know that if they win their two remaining fixtures, against Burnley and Crystal Palace, that would seal it regardless of what City do, and even a single dropped point from the chasers along the way could end the race early.
For Manchester City, the maths are tighter. Guardiola's side must navigate the rescheduled visit of Crystal Palace on Wednesday, 13 May, and then another midweek fixture against Bournemouth before they finish at home to Aston Villa on the final day. Anything other than maximum points across those three matches and the title is gone. They also need Arsenal to slip at least once, with the goal-difference deficit working against them on tiebreakers if it goes that far.
If both clubs win all of their remaining games, the race goes to the closing day, and the goal-difference column would almost certainly settle it.
Streaming schedule
Midweek attention shifts to Wednesday 13 May, when Manchester City face Crystal Palace in the rearranged fixture that closes their game in hand in what should be a blockbuster evening for Sky Sports.
The final round of fixtures kicks off simultaneously across the country, and Sky Sports traditionally runs full multi-screen coverage of those Sunday afternoons. Some games on earlier matchdays will not be available on live UK television under the 3 pm Saturday blackout, where it applies, so worth checking each kick-off time before settling in.
Betting outlook
Outright title odds have shifted sharply over the past fortnight. Arsenal's price has shortened after the win against Fulham and the draw at Everton at the Etihad, while City have drifted in the same window. Bookmakers now treat the Gunners as clear favourites, although the goal-difference angle keeps the market alive.
For the run-in, 1X2 markets on Palace versus Arsenal will draw the heaviest interest, with both teams to score and over 2.5 goals prominent for the remaining City fixtures, given Brentford's open style and Crystal Palace's recent form. Top goalscorer markets remain a battle between Erling Haaland, Bukayo Saka and Mohamed Salah, with each priced around level pegging at most major UK sportsbooks.
Lines will move quickly as team news drops over the next ten days. If you are new to reading title-race prices, or unsure how a shortening favourite translates into implied probability, this guide to different types of betting odds explained covers fractional, decimal and American formats in plain English.
Two weekends remain, and on paper, Arsenal hold every advantage - points, goal difference and a fixture list. But Manchester City have responded to pressure all season, and Everton's late equaliser at the Hill Dickinson is exactly the kind of moment that reminds you nothing is settled until the maths say so. Whether the title is decided on the closing weekend or wraps up earlier, every kick-off from here matters.
