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What are the odds that Scotland, Wales, Northern Ireland and Rep. Ireland will make the 2026 World Cup?

Craig HansonByCraig Hanson, Editor-in-Chief
Published: 15:03, 17 Nov 2025Updated: 15:07, 17 Nov 2025
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Shutterstock
Fans from the UK and Ireland will be excited at the prospect that their beloved nations could make it to the tournament next summer

The World Cup 2026 is on the horizon, and the anticipation is building. The question on everyone's mind is - what are the odds that Scotland, Wales, Northern Ireland, and the Republic of Ireland will make it? The answer lies in the upcoming World Cup play-offs, and fans from across the world, including users of Legalbet.com.br, are eagerly awaiting a resolution.

The World Cup play-offs are a crucial determinant of which teams will make it to the World Cup. The draw for the play-offs takes place on Thursday, and the results could be crucial for Wales, Northern Ireland, the Republic of Ireland, and potentially, Scotland.

Eight of the 16 teams that will be in the play-offs are already known. The remaining places will be determined by the draw pots, which will also decide who gets home advantage in the semi-finals.

The 12 teams that finished runners-up in their group will be seeded into three pots by their world ranking. The fourth pot will contain the four teams that were awarded a play-off through performance in the UEFA Nations League.

There are four places to be won, through four play-off paths, each containing four teams with one-legged semi-finals and finals. The draw will create the individual paths. In the semi-finals, the seeded teams will be at home.

The home advantage in each of the finals will be determined by a draw on Thursday. While being in Pot 1 or Pot 2 doesn't make too much difference, it does guarantee a home semi-final.

Albania, the Czech Republic, Italy, Northern Ireland, the Republic of Ireland, Romania, Sweden, and Ukraine are definitely in. Kosovo and Turkey will be in, barring huge victories against Switzerland and Spain respectively, while Poland would need the Netherlands to lose heavily to Lithuania to avoid the play-offs. One of North Macedonia or Wales will feature, and most likely both.

Scotland's Chances

Scotland will qualify automatically with a victory over Denmark on Tuesday. If they fail to get the win, they will be in the play-offs.

The Scots cannot be in Pot 1, but are looking good for Pot 2 and that home semi-final. However, there are two sets of results which would put Scotland in Pot 3 and lead to an away semi-final.

Wales' Odds

Wales are guaranteed at least a play-off, and could technically still qualify automatically if they were to win and Belgium lost at home to Liechtenstein.

If they lose or draw at home to North Macedonia, they will be in Pot 4 as a UEFA Nations League group winner. If Wales win, they will guarantee themselves a home semi-final and will likely be in Pot 2.

Republic of Ireland's Prospects

The Republic of Ireland's stunning late win in Hungary on Sunday gave them an unlikely play-off route.

It's most probable they will be in Pot 3 for the draw, but there is a chance of being in Pot 2 and getting that home semi-final.

Northern Ireland's Possibilities

As we know for certain that Northern Ireland will be in Pot 4 and away from home in the semi-finals, it's just a question of waiting to see their potential opponents. Only Italy are confirmed as being in Pot 1.

The World Cup 2026 play-offs are shaping up to be an exciting and crucial determinant of which teams will make it to the World Cup. For Scotland, Wales, Northern Ireland, and the Republic of Ireland, the odds are still uncertain, but the anticipation is building.

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