Swansea vs Derby predictions & betting tips

The Liberty Stadium is set to host a pivotal Championship match this Saturday as Swansea City face Derby County, a game with significant implications for both teams. Derby, currently 22nd and six points behind Swansea, are striving to escape the relegation zone. Meanwhile, Swansea, positioned 16th, aim to stabilise their mid-table standing amidst a season marked by inconsistency. This encounter promises to be intense, with survival and stability on the line.

The teams enter this match in contrasting form. Derby boasts a three-match winning streak, revitalising their survival hopes. Conversely, Swansea have struggled for consistency, securing only one win in their last five games (D L L W D). Their home performance has been particularly concerning, with the Swans failing to score in five of their 19 matches at the Liberty this season. Derby’s tendency to score early—23% of their goals occurring in the first 15 minutes—could be a decisive factor if they capitalise on this strength.

Historically, Swansea have a slight edge in this fixture, with five victories in the last 15 meetings. Derby’s last win at the Liberty Stadium was in 2019, underscoring their challenges on the road. However, their current form might provide the psychological boost needed to overcome past difficulties. Swansea, on the other hand, will rely on their strong record when leading at home, having won 64% of matches after taking a 1-0 lead, to assert their dominance.

Key players could influence the outcome. Swansea’s Liam Cullen, the team’s top scorer with 10 goals, will lead their attack, while Derby will depend on Jerry Yates, who has scored seven goals this season, to drive their survival efforts. With both teams vying for crucial points, this match is poised to be an exciting Championship showdown.

Swansea City - Derby County Key Facts

• Swansea City have lost just 1 of their last 5 encounters against Derby County in all competitions, indicating a strong psychological advantage that could influence the outcome of the match for punters.

• Derby have a poor away record this season, with only 2 wins from 19 matches, suggesting that betting against them in away fixtures may be a prudent choice.

• Swansea scores an impressive 30% of their goals between the 31st and 45th minutes, the highest percentage in the league, making them a formidable opponent during this period and a potential target for first-half betting markets.

Betting Predictions

Primary Bet:Over 2.5 goals @ 13/10

Swansea City’s upcoming fixture against Derby County at Liberty Stadium offers strong potential for a high-scoring encounter. The "over 2.5 goals" market, priced at 13/10, is particularly appealing, with a statistical probability of 72.8%. Historically, their meetings average 2.2 goals per match, and both sides have shown the ability to contribute to the scoreline. Swansea average 1.33 goals per home match, while Derby add 0.96 goals per away fixture. Although both teams have experienced occasional inconsistencies in front of goal, the odds present excellent value given the likelihood of a goal-filled match.

Secondary Bet:Home Win @ 1/1

The secondary recommendation of a Swansea "home win" is supported by their solid record at Liberty Stadium. Swansea have claimed victory in three of their last seven home meetings with Derby and have lost just once in their previous five encounters overall. Additionally, Swansea win 64% of matches when leading 1-0 at home, a testament to their ability to capitalise on early advantages. While Derby arrive on the back of a three-match winning streak, Swansea’s home advantage and favourable head-to-head record make the even odds of 1/1 a compelling option for punters.