AC Monza face a daunting challenge as they host Atalanta at Stadio Brianteo this Sunday, 4 May 2025, in a Serie A fixture. Rooted to the bottom of the table with just 15 points, Monza are fighting for survival after enduring five consecutive defeats. Meanwhile, Atalanta, sitting third with 65 points, are firmly in the hunt for a Champions League spot. With both sides desperate for points, this clash pits survival against ambition in what promises to be a gripping encounter.
Monza’s struggles have been stark this season. Winless in their last 14 matches, they hold the league’s worst goal difference at -34 and have failed to find the net in their last three outings. Dany Mota, their top scorer with just five goals, has been unable to shoulder the attacking burden alone. Defensively, Monza have conceded in nine consecutive matches, a worrying trend as they prepare to face an Atalanta side that has historically dominated them. Giorgos Kyriakopoulos will need to inspire a turnaround if Monza are to improve their dismal home record, which includes just one win all season.
Atalanta, by contrast, have been a nightmare opponent for Monza, winning all five of their previous meetings with a commanding aggregate score of 21-6. Mateo Retegui, with 23 goals this season, spearheads an attack that averages 2.8 goals per game against Monza. Raoul Bellanova’s dynamic contributions from the flank have also been crucial. While Atalanta’s recent form includes two wins from their last five matches, their impressive away scoring average of 1.93 goals per game underscores their threat on the road.
Psychologically, Monza’s poor record against top sides could weigh heavily, but Atalanta’s occasional inconsistency might offer a glimmer of hope. As the final whistle looms, the question remains: can Monza defy the odds, or will Atalanta tighten their grip on a Champions League place?
Monza - Atalanta Key Facts
Atalanta have demonstrated a dominant record against Monza, securing victories in 8 out of their last 9 encounters. This impressive performance is underscored by a significant goal difference of 21-6, positioning them as strong favorites for the upcoming match.
Monza are currently experiencing a challenging period, having lost their last 5 matches and failing to secure a win in their previous 14 games. This lack of form is a critical factor for consideration in any analysis of the match.
Historically, Monza has struggled offensively against Atalanta, averaging only 0.6 goals per match in their recent meetings. In contrast, Atalanta has averaged 2.8 goals, indicating a strong likelihood of a decisive victory for the visitors.
Betting Predictions
Primary bet: Away Win @ 11/50
Atalanta’s dominance over Monza, both historically and in current form, makes an Away Win the standout betting option. Atalanta have triumphed in 8 of their last 9 encounters with Monza, including convincing victories last season (3-0 at home and 2-1 away). Meanwhile, Monza are enduring a torrid run, having lost their last 5 Serie A fixtures and failing to secure a win in their previous 14 matches. With Atalanta recording 11 away wins this season and Monza languishing at the foot of the table, the odds of 11/50 represent excellent value for what appears to be a highly likely outcome.
Secondary bet: Over 2.5 Goals @ 1/2
The secondary bet of Over 2.5 Goals is strongly supported by both probability and historical trends. Matches between these sides average 3.4 goals, with Atalanta netting an impressive 2.8 goals per game against Monza. Furthermore, Monza have conceded in each of their last 9 matches, highlighting their defensive frailties. While Monza’s recent struggles in front of goal introduce a minor element of risk, Atalanta’s attacking strength and Monza’s inability to keep clean sheets make this a solid value bet at 1/2.
