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Premier League: Analysing the top five race as both Liverpool and Chelsea slip up

Craig HansonByCraig Hanson, Editor-in-Chief
Published: 10:37, 31 Mar 2026Updated: 10:41, 31 Mar 2026
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The business end of the club football season is upon us, and narrative is everywhere

As we barrel towards the conclusion of the 2025/26 Premier League season, plenty of questions remain unanswered. Will Arsenal manage to cling on to their nine-point lead over Manchester City and finally end their 22-year wait for the title? Or will they capitulate in true Gunners style? At the foot of the table, can Tottenham stave off a shocking relegation? Or will the North London outfit have to endure its darkest hour?

Another subplot that goes down to the wire every year is the race for Champions League qualification. This season, just as it was last, a spot in the top five should be enough to secure an invite to the most elite dinner party in European football, as opposed to the top four spot that used to be needed before the UCL's expansion. And with a handful of games remaining, three teams seemingly have their tickets punched already.

The top three

Two of those are the title race protagonists: Arsenal and Manchester City. Manchester United are also well-positioned, with their recent rebirth under interim manager Michael Carrick transforming the fortunes of the Red Devils. The Old Trafford outfit currently sits third in the table, seven points clear of sixth-placed Chelsea, prompting online betting sites to install them as a near certainty to secure a spot in the Champions League next term.

The latest odds from the popular LuckyRebel betting site give United a 2/15 shot to finish in the top four, and they will be far shorter than that to secure the top five spot required for qualification. But who else is in contention to lock out the two remaining top-five spots on offer? Let's take a look.

Aston Villa

Aston Villa's revolution under manager Unai Emery has been spectacular. The West Midlands outfit was a relegation candidate when the Spaniard took over three and a half years ago. Since then, they have finished in the top seven in three consecutive seasons, mounting deep European runs in each of them, headlined by a run to the Champions League quarterfinals last season.

This season, Emery's team looks well-positioned once again. The Villans currently occupy fourth place in the table, and recent defeats for both Liverpool and Chelsea have only strengthened their claim. However, Villa do have form concerns of their own, having won just two of their last eight games, including three losses on the spin. They will need to turn that around in the coming weeks if they are to secure their spot in the top five.

Liverpool

Liverpool romped to the Premier League title last term. After a £400m summer spending spree that saw the likes of Alexander Isak and Florian Wirtz arrive, many expected them to defend their crown at a canter once again. Instead, the Reds have had to endure a miserable campaign, and the recent 2-1 defeat away at Brighton saw them slump to fifth place in the table. The Merseyside outfit are on a three-game winless run, including two defeats, a run that's particularly disappointing as Arne Slot's men looked to have turned their fortunes around when they reeled off three straight wins in February.

Can Slot turn things around? If he doesn't, he may well find himself out of a job in the summer, regardless of last season's title success.

Chelsea

In the capital, Chelsea are also mired in turmoil. Manager Liam Rosenior was brought in midway through the campaign following the shock sacking of Club World Cup-winning boss Enzo Maresca. Still, the Englishman is already starting to feel the heat. The Blues have lost each of their last four games, with the three most recent defeats by three goals. The reigning World Champions were thumped 8-2 by Paris Saint-Germain over two legs in the Champions League Round of 16, then dispatched 3-0 by Everton in the Premier League.

Chelsea currently find themselves down in sixth place in the table, one point behind Liverpool. With testing matches against both Man City and Manchester United, both immediately following the international break, things could get worse before they get better. Should the Blues not come through those tests unscathed, then manager Rosenior may well find himself following former boss Maresca out of Stamford Bridge and onto the unemployment line.

The chasing pack

With just seven games remaining this season, fifth-placed Liverpool and 11th-placed Sunderland are separated by just six points. Throughout that train of clubs, teams will be dreaming of somehow squeezing their way into the top five. However, the prospect of that is more realistic for some than it is for others.

Brentford currently seem to be best placed to mount a challenge. The Bees were an odds-on favourite to suffer relegation when the initial Premier League odds were drawn up last summer. However, rookie manager Keith Andrews has done a stellar job in West London, leading his side to seventh place in the table, just three points behind the fifth-placed Reds. While the Champions League may well be a step too far, there is a very real prospect that Brentford will secure a spot in the top seven and a maiden European campaign next term, be it in the Europa League or the Conference League.

Everton are level with Brentford on 46 points, and they too will be hoping to continue their recent stellar form and secure a European return. The Toffees haven't played continental football since 2017/18, but David Moyes has done a stellar job in his second reign in charge of the club, and he could well be about to lead them back to the promised land.

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