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Portugal vs Spain predictions & betting tips

Uncover why Portugal’s perfect record when leading 1-0 at home could be the key factor in your UEFA Nations League betting strategy against Spain—read on for expert insights and predictions.

Sporticos By Sporticos, Team
Published: 16:00, 7 Jun 2025
Sporticos

The Allianz Arena is set for a high-stakes showdown this Sunday as Portugal face Spain in the UEFA Nations League final.

Spain hold a psychological advantage in this meeting, having secured two wins and five draws in their last seven against Portugal, adding extra intrigue to this encounter. This historic rivalry has consistently delivered tightly contested matches, with the last five meetings all ending in draws. For Portugal, this fixture presents a chance to break the cycle and claim a long-awaited victory over their neighbours.

However, defensive frailties could be their undoing, as they have conceded in each of their last five games. Spain, by contrast, arrive in strong form, with three wins in their last five matches and a consistent scoring record that underlines their attacking threat.

Individual brilliance could prove decisive in this clash. Portugal will rely on the experience and firepower of Cristiano Ronaldo alongside the creativity of Bruno Fernandes to lead their charge. Meanwhile, Spain will look to the vision of Pedri and the technical brilliance of Lamine Yamal. Both sides are packed with game-changers capable of swinging the momentum, ensuring a captivating contest for supporters.

Given both teams’ recent form, a high-scoring affair seems likely as the battle for UEFA Nations League supremacy unfolds.

Portugal - Spain Key Facts

  • Portugal's recent defensive record, conceding in their last five matches, suggests a vulnerability that opposing teams could exploit, making this bet a valuable option.

  • Portugal's resilience, demonstrated by their 66% win rate at home after trailing 0-1, supports this betting choice, indicating their ability to recover and secure victory.

Portugal vs Spain Betting Predictions

Primary Bet:Both Teams To Score @ 8/13

Portugal’s defensive frailties combined with Spain’s attacking reliability make "both teams to score" an excellent value bet. Portugal have failed to keep a clean sheet in their last five matches, conceding consistently, while Spain have found the back of the net in each of their last eight fixtures. Recent head-to-head clashes between these sides have also frequently delivered goals for both teams, adding further weight to this selection. With a 62% probability and odds of 8/13, this bet is well-supported by both form and historical trends.

Secondary Bet:Match Result: Away Win @ 17/20

For the secondary bet, "away win", Spain’s superior record against Portugal provides strong backing. Spain have won four of their last five meetings with Portugal and are currently on a five-match winning streak, showcasing their excellent form. In contrast, Portugal have struggled recently, losing three of their last five games, which raises doubts about their resilience in high-pressure situations. Additionally, Spain have emerged victorious in six of their last ten encounters with Portugal, making the 17/20 odds a highly appealing choice for punters.

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