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PSG vs Auxerre Ligue 1: 74% Home Win Probability Backed by Dominant 15-7 Record

Uncover why the Parisians dominate at Parc des Princes, boasting 15 home wins and a 42-16 goal difference over Auxerre—essential stats to fuel your Ligue 1 betting strategy for Saturday’s clash.

Sporticos By Sporticos, Team
Published: 16:00, 16 May 2025
Sporticos

Who will win?

PSG
X
Auxerre

Paris Saint-Germain (PSG) will host Auxerre at the Parc des Princes on Saturday, 17 May 2025, in Ligue 1. PSG, who clinched the title long ago, have demonstrated an impressive home record this season with 13 wins, 2 draws, and only 1 loss, establishing themselves as strong favourites for this match. Auxerre, positioned 10th in the table, face a challenging task as they strive to improve their standing. Both teams are eager to recover from recent setbacks, promising an engaging and competitive match.

Historically, PSG have dominated this matchup, particularly on their home turf, securing victories in 15 of their last 22 encounters with Auxerre at the Parc des Princes. The Parisians remain unbeaten in their last five meetings with Auxerre, showcasing their superiority. Matches between these teams average 2.2 goals, suggesting the potential for an exciting contest. For Auxerre, breaking this trend would not only boost their morale but could also disrupt PSG's pursuit of the title.

Recent form reveals inconsistencies for both teams. PSG's record of W W L W L indicates occasional lapses, while Auxerre's D L W L L sequence highlights their struggle for consistency. Ousmane Dembele, PSG's top scorer with 21 goals, will play a crucial role in their offensive strategy, while Hamed Junior Traore, with 10 goals this season, leads Auxerre's attack. PSG's average of 2.48 goals per home game contrasts with Auxerre's 1.37 away, making the performance of these key players potentially decisive.

PSG - Auxerre Key Facts

  • PSG have an impressive home record against Auxerre, winning 15 out of the last 22 encounters at home, with a dominant goal difference of 42-16, indicating their strong historical performance and making them favourites for this match.

  • PSG are unbeaten in their last five matches against Auxerre across all competitions, which includes three victories and two draws, showcasing their current superiority and consistency against this opponent.

  • PSG score an average of 2.48 goals per home match, while Auxerre average just 0.4 goals per match against them, highlighting a significant disparity in attacking prowess that could influence the outcome of the game.

PSG vs Auxerre Betting Predictions

Primary Bet:Home Win @ 1/5

Paris Saint-Germain’s formidable home form positions them as overwhelming favourites in this fixture against Auxerre. PSG have triumphed in 15 of their last 22 home clashes with Auxerre and are enjoying an exceptional home record this season, with 13 wins, 2 draws, and just 1 defeat. Furthermore, PSG are unbeaten in their last five meetings with Auxerre, highlighting their psychological advantage. With a calculated 74.04% probability of a "home win", the 1/5 odds provide solid value for those seeking a dependable outcome.

Secondary Bet:Over 2.5 Goals @ 29/100

The secondary bet of "over 2.5 goals" is equally compelling, supported by PSG’s attacking prowess. They average 2.48 goals per match at home, and statistical analysis assigns this bet an 82% likelihood of success. While Auxerre have struggled overall, they have managed to score in eight consecutive matches, which could contribute to the goal count. Considering the historical average of 2.2 goals per meeting between these sides and PSG’s offensive firepower, the 29/100 odds for Over 2.5 Goals represent an attractive opportunity for bettors.

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