Being the hosting nation at the FIFA World Cup can be a double-edged sword. On the one hand, tens of thousands of home supporters can push unheralded nations further than anyone ever thought they would go. On the other hand, the weight of expectation can prove too much to handle. We have seen both instances in recent years.
Four years ago, Qatar controversially hosted the tournament and, in turn, featured on the grandest stage for the first time. With support on their side, the Maroon proceeded to lose all three of their group games, scoring just one goal and exiting with a whimper. In 2018, however, it was much different.
Russia entered 2018 as the lowest-ranked team in the tournament and in disarray. However, led by the goals of talismanic target man Artem Dzyuba, the Sbornaya came within a penalty shootout of the semifinals, famously beating Spain in the second round before bowing out to eventual finalists Croatia in the quarterfinal. So, what fate will befall Mexico, Canada, and the United States this summer?
Hosts ready themselves for the World Cup
Four months out from the greatest show on earth, no one truly fancies any of the hosts to spring an upset. While reigning European Champions Spain find themselves installed as the early 9/2 frontrunners with England, the team they vanquished in that Euro 2024 final in Berlin, just behind at 11/2. Mexico is considered the most likely of the three cohosts to claim the crown, but they're a whopping 66/1. And if you can't quite grasp the huge disparity between the frontrunners and El Tri, let us show you just how wide the gap is using the popular implied probability calculator at Thunderpick.
Examples provided from this calculator platform: https://thunderpick.io/betting-calculators/implied-probability-calculator
As one can see, the above odds imply that Spain has over an 18% chance of leaving MetLife Stadium on July 19th with the famous gold trophy in tow for the second time. Mexico, meanwhile, has under a 1.5% chance. And for the United States and Canada? It's even worse.
So, what would represent a successful tournament for our host nations? Let's take a look.
Mexico: Quarterfinals
Mexico will kick off the tournament at their stunning Estadio Azteca in Mexico City on June 11th as they welcome South Africa across the Atlantic. The clash will no doubt bring bucketloads of nostalgia, bringing back memories of their curtain raiser back in 2010 and Siphiwe Tshabalala's iconic opener for Bafana Bafana. This time around, much like it is at every tournament, the Mexican objective is simple: Somehow make it to the quarterfinals.
Between 1994 and 2018, El Tri embarked on an astonishing run of seven straight Round of 16 stage exits, with the likes of Brazil, Argentina, and the Netherlands all ending their adventures. In 2022, that run came to an end, as the Mexicans suffered a group stage exit, finishing behind Poland on goal difference.
The last time Exco reached the quarterfinals came back in 1986, a tournament Mexico hosted. Will the World Cup returning to the country for the first time since then be a good omen? We will soon find out the answer to the question, but the quarterfinals, as they always are, are Mexico's minimum target. Anything less would be considered a failure.
United States: Quarterfinals
The United States find themselves in an unfortunate position. The American public is demanding, and they think their team, as they do with most sports, is better than it actually is. In theory, the United States reaching the Round of 16 would be quite the achievement in the eyes of most onlookers. But not their notoriously fickle home supporters.
In many of their eyes, especially the ones that don't know too much about "soccer," anything other than Christian Pulisic lifting the trophy high on July 19th would be considered a disaster. That's despite the fact that the USMNT is considered an 80/1 outsider. But most US soccer fans would likely agree that, much like Mexico, it's the quarterfinals or bust. Even that seems quite a lofty target in our eyes.
Yes, this is arguably the most talented US team of all time. Pulisic leads a cast stacked with Europe-based talent. Weston McKennie regularly starts in central midfield for Juventus, Tyler Adams is tearing up the Premier League with Bournemouth, while Timothy Weah is currently with French giants Marseille. But despite the talent, it's been a mixed bag of results under former Paris Saint-Germain boss Mauricio Pochettino.
The Argentine led the US to a shocking group stage exit at the Copa America in the summer of 2024, another tournament that they hosted. Last summer, they were thoroughly outclassed by Mexico in the Concacaf Gold Cup final, while they have continually come unstuck against their bogey team, Panama. Avoiding banana skins in the group stage is the first order of business, and if they succeed with that task, confidence should grow.
Canada: Second Round
This summer will mark Canada's third appearance at the World Cup. They are still waiting for their first victory. 2022 marked their first appearance on the grandest stage in 36 years. And much like at Mexico '86, the Maple Leafs lost all three of their group games, with Morocco, Belgium, and Croatia all reigning supreme.
Jesse Marsch's men must not only find that elusive first win, but they must also find a way to qualify from Group B. And that could prove to be quite the task if Italy fend off in the group by progressing from their European playoff as expected. If they do, the Azzurri will join Canada, Qatar, and Switzerland in Group B, and the Maple Leafs will immediately have their work cut out.
For Canada, beating Qatar is non-negotiable. If they do that, a point against either Italy or Switzerland should be enough to secure progression to the knockout round. Anything less would be a disaster. Three more defeats may see Canadian sports fans retire to the ice hockey rinks once and for all.
