Santiago Bernabeu will be the venue for the fiery LaLiga battle on Sunday, 9 March, when Real Madrid host Rayo Vallecano in a battle for European competition qualification. Since Real Madrid have been in third place in the standing, they aim to secure this position, but seventh-place team Rayo would like to keep alive the prospects of playing in Europe next year. Since both teams recorded draws in the previous match played, the added pressure comes with this Madrid derby.
Real Madrid's strong home form has been the pick of their season, with 10 wins, one draw, and just one defeat at the Bernabeu. Rayo Vallecano, meanwhile, have been inconsistent on the road, winning four, drawing five, and losing four games. The hosts also have a strong statistical influence on this match, having won 25 of their 33 matches against Rayo. But the visitors have been stubborn, picking up two wins from their previous five matches, meaning that they will not be so easy to defeat.
The past also appears to be in favor of Real Madrid. Rayo had last defeated their city neighbors away in 1996, and the home side is unbeaten in their previous 14 home games against their local neighbors. The games are usually thrilling, with an average of 3.2 goals per game. Real Madrid's tendency to score an early goal could dictate the tone, but Rayo's tendency to score late goals could keep the match alive until the final minutes.
Key men will make the difference. Real Madrid spearhead Kylian Mbappe, with 17 goals already this season, will be the key man, but Rayo's top player Jorge de Frutos, who has four goals to his name, will be seeking to get the better of the visitors. European qualification hanging in the balance and both teams wanting to end their winless run, this promises to be a LaLiga thriller not to be missed.
Real Madrid - Rayo Vallecano Key Facts
Real Madrid have a good home record against Rayo Vallecano, having won 13 of their last 16 home games against them at the Santiago Bernabéu, and with an overall goal advantage of 49-14, and so must be good bets for this fixture.
Real Madrid have gone 14 consecutive home games against Rayo Vallecano without losing, which shows their previous success and suggests a good likelihood of winning again.
Real Madrid have scored a goal or more in their last eight matches and have averaged 2.83 goals per match at home so far this term, which means they have shown a solid attacking display that should be able to exploit Rayo Vallecano's poor defense.
Betting Predictions
Primary Bet: Home Win @ 2/7
Real Madrid's dominance over Rayo Vallecano, particularly on home soil, makes a home win the preferable choice. The hosts have taken 13 of their last 16 at home to Rayo and have not lost in their last nine at this historic ground. Real Madrid this term have been strong at home with 10 wins, 1 draw, and a single defeat. Rayo Vallecano, meanwhile, have had a terrible away record in Madrid, failing to win a game in their last 14 visits. While Real Madrid's recent form has not been characterized by stability, their historical dominance and Rayo's continuing away form troubles strongly support the home win at 29/100.
Secondary Bet: Over 2.5 Goals @ 4/7
The secondary bet of over 2.5 Goals is supported by the goal-laden history between these two sides, whose encounters have averaged 3.2 goals per match. Real Madrid have been dominant on their ground this season, averaging 2.83 goals per game, and their strikers ought to overwhelm the goals tally. Although Rayo have failed to score in five of their 13 away games, their career average of 1.6 goals per match against Real Madrid ensures that they will still contribute. With a 75% chance and excellent odds of 53/100, the market is excellent value for individuals seeking a little extra money.
Editorial Pick: Real Madrid to score a penalty at 10/3
The hosts have won more penalties than any other team in La Liga this season (10) and with their blistering front three bearing down on the Rayo box time after time, it wouldn't be a surprise to see someone brought down and for Madrid to convert, which they have done at a rate of 80% from the spot this term.
