This Saturday, the spotlight falls on Estadio de Mendizorroza as Deportivo Alaves host Atletico Madrid in a crucial LaLiga showdown. Atletico, sitting third on 66 points, are pushing to secure Champions League qualification, while Alaves, precariously placed 17th with 34 points, are battling to stave off relegation. The 32-point gulf between the sides highlights the contrasting stakes driving this encounter.
Atletico arrive in strong form, boasting three wins from their last five matches and a league-best +29 goal difference. In contrast, Alaves have struggled for consistency, with just two victories in their last five outings and a -11 goal difference. The hosts’ attacking struggles are evident, having failed to score in seven of their 16 home fixtures this season. Meanwhile, Atletico’s impressive away form is underscored by their 2.03 goals-per-game average, far outstripping Alaves’s 0.9 goals at home. These statistics could prove decisive in shaping the result.
Historically, Atletico have dominated this fixture, winning six of the last nine meetings, including a narrow 1-0 triumph in their most recent clash. However, Alaves’s home advantage cannot be dismissed, with the most frequent result at Mendizorroza being a 2-0 win for the hosts. Additionally, Alaves have a 70% win rate when leading 1-0 at home, a psychological edge they will hope to exploit against their formidable opponents.
Key players are set to take centre stage. Alaves’s top scorer Kike Garcia, with 12 goals this season, will be vital to their survival hopes, while Atletico’s Julian Alvarez, who has netted 15 times, remains a constant threat. With both teams’ seasons hanging in the balance, this clash promises high drama, tension, and potentially season-defining consequences.
CD Alaves - Atletico Madrid Key Facts
Atletico Madrid have demonstrated a superior head-to-head record against CD Alaves, securing victories in 13 out of their last 23 encounters. This historical dominance positions them as a strong contender for success in their upcoming match.
CD Alaves have faced challenges in scoring during home games, failing to find the net in 7 of their 16 La Liga matches this season. This trend suggests a potential for Atletico Madrid to achieve a clean sheet in the match.
Atletico Madrid averages 2.03 goals per away match, contrasting with CD Alaves' average of 0.9 goals at home. This disparity in offensive performance highlights Atletico Madrid's attacking strength and could significantly influence the match's outcome.
Betting Predictions
Primary bet: Away Win @ 11/10
Atletico Madrid are the clear favourites for this fixture, with statistical models giving them a 59.96% chance of victory. Historically, they have dominated Alaves, winning 13 of their last 23 meetings, including three of the most recent five. Atletico’s attacking prowess is evident in their impressive away scoring average of 2.03 goals per match, far surpassing Alaves’s modest home average of just 0.9 goals. While Alaves have occasionally shown resilience on home turf, their current struggles—sitting 17th in the league and failing to score in 7 of their 16 home matches this season—make an upset highly improbable.
Secondary bet: Over 2.5 Goals @ 6/4
The secondary bet on Over 2.5 Goals is supported by a strong 68.92% probability, with previous encounters between these sides averaging 2.8 goals per match. Both teams have shown recent scoring potential, with Alaves averaging 1.2 goals and Atletico 1.6 goals in their head-to-head clashes. Although Alaves’s inconsistency in front of goal at home poses a slight risk, Atletico’s superior form and ability to create chances suggest a high-scoring match is likely. These factors make both betting options excellent value for this fixture.
