Derby vs Burnley predictions & betting tips

Derby County face a crucial test as they host Burnley at Pride Park Stadium on Tuesday, 8 April 2025, at 19:45. For Derby, currently 22nd in the Championship and fighting to escape relegation, this fixture is nothing short of a must-win. Burnley, on the other hand, sit comfortably in 3rd and are firmly in the promotion race. With a significant 19-point gap between the sides, this clash pits Derby’s desperation for survival against Burnley’s push for the Premier League, promising a dramatic evening of football.

Recent form highlights the contrasting trajectories of the two teams. Burnley arrive in fine shape, unbeaten in their last five matches, underlining their consistency and resilience. Derby, however, have struggled, securing just one win in their previous five outings. Scoring has been a persistent issue for the Rams, who have failed to find the net in six home matches this season. While Derby average 1.4 goals per game at Pride Park, Burnley’s solid away form, with 1.34 goals per game and a +42 goal difference, suggests they will be tough to break down.

The historical record further tilts the balance in Burnley’s favour. The Clarets are unbeaten in their last five meetings with Derby, including a goalless draw in their most recent encounter. Over 26 matches, Burnley have claimed 13 wins to Derby’s six, with the most common result at Pride Park being a 2-1 victory for the visitors. Derby’s last home win against Burnley came back in 2007, a statistic that casts a long shadow over their preparations.

Individual performances could prove decisive. Jerry Yates, Derby’s leading scorer with eight goals, will need to step up against Burnley’s formidable defence. Meanwhile, Josh Brownhill, with 13 goals this season, remains a key figure for the visitors. As kick-off approaches, the question looms: Can Derby defy the odds, or will Burnley extend their dominance and edge closer to promotion?

Derby County - Burnley Key Facts

• Burnley have not lost any of their last five encounters against Derby across all competitions, winning three and drawing two, indicating a strong psychological advantage that could influence betting on their performance.

• In their last five Championship matches against Derby County, Burnley have maintained an unbeaten record, further solidifying their dominance and making them a reliable choice for punters.

• Derby County have failed to score in six of their 20 home matches this season, highlighting their inconsistency in front of goal, which could sway betting decisions towards Burnley keeping a clean sheet.

Betting Predictions

Primary Bet:Over 2.5 goals @ 7/4

Burnley’s recent form and scoring consistency make the "over 2.5 goals" market an attractive option, with a 67.8% probability based on statistical analysis. They have found the net in each of their last six matches, while historical encounters between these sides average two goals per game, hinting at the potential for a high-scoring fixture. Although Derby County have occasionally struggled to score at home this season, their current four-match winning streak suggests they could contribute to an open and competitive match, further bolstering the case for multiple goals.

Secondary Bet:Away Win @ 9/10

Backing Burnley for an "away win" also offers strong value, given their impressive Championship campaign and a six-match unbeaten run. Their away record of 11 wins, 6 draws, and just 2 losses underlines their reliability on the road. Furthermore, Burnley have dominated recent head-to-head meetings, securing three wins and two draws in their last five clashes with Derby. While Derby’s home form and recent momentum cannot be ignored, Burnley’s consistency, superior league performance, and historical edge make them the more likely victors.