CD Alaves vs Real Sociedad predictions & betting tips

Deportivo Alaves face a pivotal moment in their LaLiga campaign as they host Real Sociedad at the Estadio de Mendizorroza on Wednesday, 23 April 2025, at 20:30. Sitting 18th in the table with 31 points from 32 matches, Alaves are locked in a fierce relegation battle. In contrast, Sociedad, comfortably placed 9th on 42 points, approach this fixture with far less pressure. For Alaves, it’s a must-win encounter to keep their survival hopes alive, setting the stage for a high-stakes clash.

Alaves’ recent form offers little comfort, with just one win in their last five matches and a concerning -12 goal difference underlining their struggles at both ends of the pitch. Their inability to score in seven of their 15 home games this season further compounds their woes. However, their knack for late goals—30% of their strikes coming in the final 15 minutes—could prove decisive in a tight contest. Sociedad, boasting a stronger defensive record and slightly better form, hold the upper hand on paper, but the unpredictable nature of a relegation scrap could even the odds.

History provides a glimmer of hope for Alaves. They have triumphed in 11 of their last 19 home meetings with Sociedad, with 2-1 being the most common scoreline. Their last encounter ended in an Alaves victory, which could serve as a psychological boost. However, Sociedad’s recent dominance, with just one loss in the last five clashes, suggests they won’t be easily subdued. The passionate Mendizorroza crowd could play a crucial role in spurring Alaves on.

Key players are likely to decide the outcome. Kike Garcia, Alaves’ top scorer with 12 goals, will be central to their attacking efforts, while Sociedad’s Mikel Oyarzabal, with 8 goals, remains a constant threat. Scoring first is critical for Alaves, who have won just 10% of home games when trailing. With their LaLiga future hanging by a thread, this match could define Alaves’ season.

Deportivo Alaves - Real Sociedad Key Facts

Both Deportivo Alaves and Real Sociedad have shown limited offensive capabilities in recent matches, with Alaves failing to score in 7 of their 15 home games and Sociedad not scoring in 8 of their 15 away games. This trend suggests a high likelihood of a low-scoring match, making the under 2.5 goals market a strong option.

Alaves have demonstrated a strong home advantage historically against Sociedad, winning 11 of their last 19 encounters at home. This historical performance supports the potential for a home victory in this matchup.

Betting Predictions

Primary Bet:Over 2.5 goals @ 81/50

The primary bet of "over 2.5 goals" is supported by a strong probability of 71.83%, indicating a high likelihood of a goal-filled encounter. Real Sociedad's defensive frailties are a significant factor, as they have failed to keep a clean sheet in their last 10 matches. Furthermore, both teams have demonstrated consistent scoring patterns, with Alaves averaging 1 goal per home match and Sociedad netting 1.25 goals per away fixture. These figures, combined with the appealing odds, make this a value-driven option, even when accounting for the occasional low-scoring performances seen recently.

Secondary Bet:Away Win @ 12/5

For the secondary bet, Real Sociedad's recent form makes them a compelling choice for an "away win". They have suffered just one defeat in their last five matches and boast an impressive record against Alaves, winning four of their previous five meetings. While Alaves have traditionally been strong at home, their current struggles—managing only one victory in their last five LaLiga fixtures—suggest they may struggle to contain Sociedad. With odds of 12/5, this bet offers excellent value, particularly given Sociedad's momentum and Alaves's recent dip in form.