Osasuna welcomed relegation-threatened Valencia to the Estadio El Sadar on a pivotal Sunday evening LaLiga match. The visitors are placed 18th, with added pressure to grab points in their survival battle, and mid-table hosts look to stabilize the ship after a dismal run of results. A victory would be able to pull Valencia out of trouble, and thus, the match is pivotal.
Both teams enter the match in poor condition, with Osasuna not having won their last four games and Valencia off a defeat. The home side's boost in playing at El Sadar may prove to be the determining factor, as a more potent attack scoring an average of 1.32 goals per game in front of their own faithful versus Valencia's 1.08 on the road. Perhaps most notably, Osasuna have been particularly deadly in the opening half, hitting 28% of their goals between the 16th and 30th minute.
The confrontation offers an intriguing shootout between the two teams' ace strikers. Osasuna's Ante Budimir has been a good scorer this season with 13 goals, whereas Valencia's Hugo Duro has scored seven decisive goals for his team. Both their contributions might prove to be the difference-maker in a match that is historically susceptible to low-scoring contests, with 1.6 goals on average coming in contests between them lately.
Whilst Valencia retain the long-term head through their 25 wins out of their previous 47 against their opponents, they add a new dynamic to their current situation. Whilst their latest meeting had produced honours equal, each is desperate for an outright victory since their differing fortunes do not support taking home less than the maximum.
For Valencia, their high head-to-head mark against Osasuna will prove worthless unless and until they bring home an indispensable win as a matter of fighting off the reaper.
Betting Predictions
Primary Bet: Over 2.5 goals @ 2.30
Secondary Bet: Osasuna Win @ 2.30
Statistical analysis overwhelmingly indicates an open game at El Sadar, with our models calculating a convincing 67.78% chance of more than 2.5 goals.
The facts are evident - Osasuna's home average of 1.32 goals per match combined with Valencia's away average of 1.08 offers up a game friendly to multiple goals. The hosts' defensive frailties are exposed, having not kept a clean sheet in 11 consecutive matches, and Valencia's away record usually produces open, attacking football.
Valencia's disastrous away record this season, with no away win (D5, L7), makes Osasuna an appealing bet despite their current four-match winless run. The head-to-head record at El Sadar, where Osasuna have triumphed six out of 23 times, lends credibility to a 43.13% winning probability - a statistic that is quite strong against Valencia, who've been scoreless in five out of 12 on the road.
Look for both teams to try to come at each other early to end consecutive defeats, thus playing into the home team's hands to win three points.
Editorial Pick
Valencia have looked better of late, apart from when they play the very best teams in the league (e.g. Barca, Atleti). They should have enough to take three points from Osasuna, even if they are away from home, but it won't be easy.
