CD Alaves vs Real Madrid predictions & betting tips

The stakes are sky-high as Alaves welcome Real Madrid to the Estadio de Mendizorroza this Sunday in a crucial LaLiga showdown. For Alaves, teetering in 17th place with just 27 points, this fixture is a lifeline in their battle against relegation. Meanwhile, Real Madrid, sitting second on 63 points, are locked in a fierce pursuit of the league leaders. With both sides desperate for a result, this clash promises to deliver drama and intensity as survival meets title ambition.

The history books heavily favour Real Madrid, who have triumphed in 22 of the last 27 meetings. Alaves’ last victory over the Spanish giants came back in 2018, and since then, they have struggled to compete, failing to score in six of their 14 home matches this season. Real Madrid’s attacking firepower, led by Kylian Mbappe with 22 goals this campaign, has often proved too much for Alaves, with Los Blancos averaging 3.2 goals per game in this fixture. In stark contrast, Alaves have managed just 0.6 goals per match against their illustrious opponents, highlighting the scale of the challenge ahead.

Recent form further underlines the gulf between the two teams. Real Madrid arrive with three wins from their last five matches, while Alaves have scraped together just two victories in the same period. Jude Bellingham’s commanding displays in midfield have been instrumental for Real Madrid, while Alaves will pin their hopes on Kike Garcia, their leading scorer with 11 goals, to inspire an upset. Late drama could play a role, as Alaves have netted 30% of their goals in the dying minutes, but Real Madrid’s relentless attack may leave little room for such heroics.

As the season edges towards its conclusion, the stakes couldn’t be higher. A win for Alaves could ignite a late push for survival, while Real Madrid will look to keep the pressure on at the top of the table. With everything to play for, this encounter could prove pivotal in shaping the LaLiga narrative.

Deportivo Alaves - Real Madrid Key Facts

• Real Madrid have an outstanding record against Deportivo Alaves, winning 22 of their last 27 encounters, which highlights their dominance and makes them strong favourites for this match.

• Alaves have failed to win any of their last 6 matches against Madrid, indicating a significant psychological disadvantage that could affect their performance.

• Madrid have scored an average of 3.2 goals per match against Alaves, while the latter averages only 0.6 goals in these fixtures, suggesting a high likelihood of a comfortable win for the visitors.

Betting Predictions

Primary Bet:Over 2.5 goals @ 4/5

Real Madrid’s attacking firepower and their dominant record against Deportivo Alaves make the "over 2.5 goals" market particularly appealing. Historical data reveals a 74.61% probability for this outcome, underpinned by an average of 3.8 goals scored in their previous meetings. Real Madrid have been prolific in this fixture, netting an average of 3.2 goals per match against Alaves, while Alaves contribute an average of 1.1 goals per home game. Although Alaves have struggled for consistency in front of goal, Real Madrid’s defensive frailties—having conceded in each of their last eight matches—further increase the likelihood of a high-scoring encounter.

Secondary Bet:Away Win @ 31/50

The "away win" bet also presents strong value, given Real Madrid’s commanding record in this fixture. They have triumphed in 10 of their last 13 visits to Alaves and are currently on a five-match winning streak against them. Alaves, by contrast, are enduring a poor run of form, losing their last five matches across all competitions. While Alaves may show determination as they battle to avoid relegation, Real Madrid’s superior quality, coupled with their title ambitions, makes them overwhelming favourites to secure another victory.