Inter Milan vs AC Milan predictions & betting tips

The Derby della Madonnina returns with all its passion and intensity as Inter and AC Milan face off in the Coppa Italia on Wednesday, 23 April 2025. This iconic rivalry, deeply rooted in Italian football tradition, carries immense significance with both sides desperate for a victory that could shape their seasons. Inter arrive at the San Siro in imperious form, boasting a remarkable 20-game unbeaten streak at home, while AC Milan’s recent inconsistency raises doubts about their ability to overcome their city rivals. With so much at stake, the stage is set for a thrilling spectacle.

Inter’s dominance on home soil has been pivotal to their success. Averaging 2.13 goals per game at the San Siro, they have consistently outscored opponents, though defensive lapses have seen them concede in their last five matches. AC Milan, by contrast, have struggled for consistency, particularly in the Coppa Italia, where they have managed just one win in their last five meetings with Inter. Overcoming their rivals’ home advantage will demand a disciplined and inspired display from Stefano Pioli’s men.

Historically, Inter hold the upper hand in this rivalry, leading the head-to-head record with 12 wins in 21 matches. Their dominance is further emphasised by an impressive home record, winning 18 of the last 36 encounters against AC Milan at the San Siro when they have been marked as the home side. The most recent clash, a hard-fought 1-1 draw, sets the tone for another fiercely competitive battle. With 1-0 being the most common scoreline in these derbies, fans can expect a match defined by fine margins and tactical nous.

The knockout nature of the Coppa Italia adds an extra layer of pressure, and the psychological impact of recent form cannot be overlooked. Inter’s unbeaten run and AC Milan’s struggles create contrasting narratives, but both sides understand the magnitude of this fixture. A win here could shift momentum, galvanise morale, and write another unforgettable chapter in the storied history of the Derby della Madonnina.

Inter Milan - AC Milan Key Facts

• Inter Milan have demonstrated remarkable consistency at home, remaining unbeaten in their last 20 matches. This impressive record underscores their strong home advantage and positions them as a formidable contender in upcoming fixtures.

• Historically, Inter Milan have shown dominance in their home encounters against AC Milan, securing 18 wins out of the last 36 matches compared to AC Milan's 11 victories. This historical trend could play a significant role in shaping betting decisions.

• Despite AC Milan's resilience, having lost only 1 of their last 5 matches against Inter Milan across all competitions, the recent head-to-head record reveals a competitive balance. Inter Milan have managed just 1 win in the last 5 meetings, suggesting potential value in considering a draw or an AC Milan victory in betting scenarios.

Betting Predictions

Primary Bet: Over 2.5 goals @ 3/4

The fierce rivalry between Inter Milan and AC Milan promises an exciting, high-scoring affair, with their previous meetings averaging 3 goals per match. Inter’s formidable home scoring rate of 2.13 goals per game, coupled with AC Milan’s solid 1.62 goals per match on the road, underscores the attacking quality on both sides. Notably, both teams have scored in nearly 60% of their fixtures this season, and with both finding the net in their last 11+ matches, the probability of "over 2.5 goals" stands at an impressive 80.6%, making this a highly attractive betting option.

Secondary Bet: Home Win @ Evens

Backing Inter Milan for a "home win" at evens also presents strong value. The hosts are in scintillating form at the San Siro, boasting 9 consecutive home victories and remaining unbeaten in their last 12 matches overall. Historically, Inter have dominated this fixture on home turf, winning 18 of their last 36 clashes against AC Milan. While AC Milan have shown resilience in recent encounters, Inter’s superior first-half performances—winning 50% of first halves compared to AC Milan’s 36%—and their current momentum make them the more dependable choice in this crucial semifinal showdown.