The Stadio Pierluigi Penzo is set to host a Serie A match on Monday, 12 May 2025, as Venezia faces Fiorentina in a game with significant implications for both teams. Venezia, currently in 18th place with 26 points, is fighting to escape relegation, while Fiorentina, in 8th place with 59 points, is vying for a European competition spot. With only three matches left in the season, the stakes are high, and every point is crucial.
Recent performances highlight the challenges both teams face. Venezia's form of D L D W D indicates inconsistency, while Fiorentina's D L L W W shows slight improvement but also defensive vulnerabilities. Venezia has struggled offensively, averaging only 0.4 goals per game against Fiorentina, who have conceded in their last five matches. This suggests a tightly contested, low-scoring game where early goals could be decisive.
Historically, this fixture has been balanced, with the last 12 meetings resulting in five wins each and two draws, including a goalless draw earlier this season. However, Venezia has a strong home record against Fiorentina, winning four of their last five encounters at the Pierluigi Penzo. This home advantage, combined with the support of their fans, could be crucial in their battle for survival.
Key players will likely influence the outcome. Hans Nicolussi Caviglia's midfield creativity is vital for Venezia, while Fiorentina relies on Moise Kean, whose 17 goals this season highlight his scoring prowess. With Venezia's top scorer having only four goals, the difference in attacking strength is evident. Both teams must capitalize on their opportunities in this potentially season-defining match.
Venezia - Fiorentina Key Facts
Venezia's strong home performance against Fiorentina, winning 4 out of their last 5 encounters with a goal difference of 9-4, suggests a significant home advantage that could favor their victory.
Both teams have shown recent struggles in scoring, with Venezia failing to score in 9 of their 17 home games and Fiorentina in 4 of their 17 away matches, making a low-scoring game a plausible outcome.
Venezia vs Fiorentina Betting Predictions
Primary bet: Over 2.5 goals @ 6/5
The primary recommendation of over 2.5 goals is underpinned by a robust statistical probability of 71.43%, offering excellent value at 6/5 odds. Venezia average 1 goal per home match, while Fiorentina boast an impressive 1.71 goals per away fixture, highlighting a strong likelihood of a high-scoring encounter. Although past meetings between these sides have averaged just 1 goal per match, recent form paints a different picture. Fiorentina's attacking prowess, coupled with their defensive frailties—having conceded in each of their last five matches—suggests an open and goal-laden affair.
Secondary bet: Fiorentina to win @ 69/50
The secondary bet on Fiorentina to win is supported by their superior Serie A campaign and a 47.87% probability of victory, significantly higher than Venezia's 26.62%. Fiorentina have secured wins in 46% of their away fixtures this season, contrasting sharply with Venezia's modest 20% home win rate. While Venezia's historical dominance at home in this fixture—winning 4 of the last 5 meetings—introduces an element of caution, Fiorentina's current form and overall quality make them the more likely victors. Both bets present strong value, with the primary focusing on goals and the secondary leveraging Fiorentina's competitive edge.
