The Stadio Olimpico will host a Serie A showdown this Sunday as Roma take on Fiorentina in a clash that could shape their European ambitions. Roma currently sit 6th on 60 points, with Fiorentina just one point behind in 8th, making this a high-stakes encounter. Both sides come into the fixture in excellent form—Roma are unbeaten in their last six matches, while Fiorentina boast an impressive nine-game unbeaten streak. The result will not only influence the table but also set the tone for the season's final stretch.
Roma’s formidable home record could be the deciding factor. The Giallorossi are unbeaten in their last 15 matches at the Stadio Olimpico, underlining their dominance on home soil. Historically, they have been a tough opponent for Fiorentina in Rome, winning 23 of their last 32 meetings. However, Fiorentina’s resilience cannot be overlooked. Their last victory over Roma—a commanding 4-0 win—remains a psychological boost, and they have lost just one of their last five encounters with the hosts.
Individual performances are likely to play a pivotal role. Roma’s Artem Dovbyk, renowned for his clinical finishing, will aim to capitalise on any defensive lapses, while Fiorentina’s Moise Kean brings dynamism to their attack. Both teams also display distinct scoring patterns—Roma often strike late, with 24% of their goals coming between the 61st and 75th minutes, while Fiorentina tend to score early, netting 23% of their goals between the 31st and 45th minutes. These trends could influence the tactical battle on the pitch.
With European qualification on the line, this match is a defining moment for both teams. Roma will look to reinforce their dominance at home, while Fiorentina aim to end their Olimpico hoodoo. With just one point separating them and a history of fiercely contested encounters, this promises to be a dramatic and potentially season-defining clash.
Roma - Fiorentina Key Facts
Roma have demonstrated a strong home record against Fiorentina, remaining unbeaten in their last six encounters at the Stadio Olimpico. This highlights their dominance and positions them as strong favorites for this match.
Fiorentina have only managed to secure one victory in their last five Serie A games against Roma. This trend indicates that Roma has been a challenging opponent for Fiorentina in recent fixtures.
Roma have scored in 19 consecutive matches and average 1.97 goals per home game. This suggests a high likelihood of them finding the net, which could influence betting decisions on total goals or match outcomes.
Betting Predictions
Primary bet: Over 2.5 goals @ Evens
The recommendation for over 2.5 goals is strongly supported by both historical data and current form. Fixtures between Roma and Fiorentina average an impressive 3.4 goals per match, with a calculated probability of 75.21% for this outcome. Roma have been prolific at home, scoring an average of 1.97 goals per match, while Fiorentina are equally potent on their travels, averaging 1.74 goals. Although both sides have shown defensive vulnerabilities, their attacking quality makes this a high-value selection at even odds.
Secondary bet: Home Win @ 13/20
Backing a Roma home win as the secondary bet is bolstered by their dominant record against Fiorentina and their formidable home form. Roma have triumphed in 23 of their last 32 home encounters with Fiorentina and are unbeaten in their last 15 matches at the Stadio Olimpico. Fiorentina, despite being on a nine-match unbeaten run, have not won away at Roma since 2018. With Roma’s resilience on home turf and their historical superiority, this wager provides a strong complementary option.
