West Brom vs Derby predictions & betting tips

The Hawthorns sets the stage for a high-stakes Championship clash on Monday, 21 April, as West Brom welcome Derby County in a fixture that could shape the season for both sides. West Brom, currently seventh on 60 points, are fighting to secure a playoff spot, while Derby, sitting 21st with 43 points, are battling to avoid relegation. With so much on the line, this encounter promises to be a gripping affair.

Recent form tells two contrasting stories. West Brom have struggled for consistency, managing just one win in their last five matches (W L L L D). Derby, on the other hand, have shown resilience, picking up two wins and two draws in the same period (D D L W W). However, Derby’s woeful away record—just two wins, six draws, and 13 losses this season—underscores the uphill battle they face against a West Brom side boasting 14 home victories this campaign.

History, though, favours the visitors. Derby have won 11 of their last 23 meetings with West Brom, including their most recent encounter. This psychological edge could prove pivotal, especially as the Baggies have failed to beat Derby in their last three attempts. Overcoming this mental barrier will be crucial if West Brom are to keep their playoff ambitions alive.

Individual performances could swing the balance. West Brom’s Josh Maja, with 12 goals this season, will spearhead the hosts’ attack, while Derby’s Jerry Yates, who has netted nine times, remains their key offensive weapon. Both players possess the quality to decide the match, making their contributions vital in this high-pressure showdown.

As kickoff approaches, the question remains: can West Brom end their winless run against Derby, or will the visitors pull off a crucial upset to bolster their survival hopes? This is more than just a match—it’s a defining moment for both clubs.

West Brom - Derby Key Facts

• Derby County have won 11 of the last 23 encounters against West Bromwich Albion, showcasing a strong historical advantage that could influence betting decisions, particularly given their recent form against this opponent.

• West Bromwich Albion have failed to win any of their last three matches against Derby County, indicating a concerning trend for the home side that punters should consider when placing bets.

• In their last five Championship meetings, Derby County have triumphed in three matches while West Bromwich Albion have only managed one victory, further emphasising Derby's dominance in recent contests and suggesting a potential value bet on the away side.

Betting Predictions

Primary bet: Over 2.5 Goals @ 11/10

West Brom’s defensive frailties and recent form make Over 2.5 Goals an excellent value selection, with a calculated probability of 70.7%. The Baggies have conceded in each of their last six matches, highlighting a strong likelihood of goals from both sides. Although historical encounters between these sides average just 1.4 goals per match, recent trends point towards a more open fixture. This is further reinforced by Derby’s inconsistent defensive displays away from home, which have left them vulnerable to conceding.

Secondary bet: Home Win @ 8/13

The Home Win bet is supported by West Brom’s solid record at home and Derby’s dismal away form, where they have managed just two wins in 21 attempts this season (2-6-13). West Brom have also claimed victory in four of their last ten home fixtures against Derby, and their home advantage could prove decisive. While Derby have shown slight improvement in recent weeks, their persistent struggles on the road make this a reliable secondary option, with a 57.7% chance of success.