The Estadio de Mendizorroza will host a crucial LaLiga clash this Saturday as Deportivo Alaves take on Osasuna in a fixture which is much more important to the visitors than the hosts. Alaves, sitting 14th with 41 points, have secured their place in the Spanish top flight for next season. Osasuna, on the other hand, are 9th on 51 points, and could finish as high as 7th to secure a Europa League spot, while 8th would also see them qualify for the Conference League.
Recent form suggests a tightly contested affair. Alaves have shown resilience with a record of W W L D W, often leaving it late to make an impact—30% of their goals have come in the final 15 minutes. Osasuna, however, arrive with a slight edge, having recorded W W D L W in their last five outings and averaging 1.2 goals per game on the road. Alaves’ home struggles, failing to score in eight of their 18 matches, could play into Osasuna’s hands, though the visitors’ inconsistent away record of 2-9-7 adds an element of unpredictability.
The history between these two sides adds further intrigue. Osasuna have dominated this fixture, winning 17 of the last 35 meetings, while Alaves have managed just 12 victories. Their most recent encounter ended in a thrilling 2-2 draw, but Alaves have failed to beat Osasuna in their last five attempts, with their last home win against them coming in 2015. This psychological hurdle could weigh heavily on the hosts as they look to change the narrative.
Key players will likely determine the outcome. Alaves will rely on Kike Garcia, their top scorer with 13 goals, while Osasuna’s Ante Budimir, with an impressive 21 goals, will look to extend his fine form. With so much at stake, this encounter promises to be a defining moment in the race for European football in La Liga.
Alaves - Osasuna Key Facts
Osasuna have demonstrated a strong historical advantage over Alaves, securing victories in 9 out of the last 16 encounters at Alaves' home ground. This trend suggests a high likelihood of Osasuna earning points in the upcoming fixture.
Alaves have struggled offensively, failing to score in 8 of their 18 home matches this season. This lack of attacking form could significantly impact their performance in the match.
Osasuna have shown consistent offensive capabilities, scoring in their last 8 consecutive matches. This form could allow them to capitalise on Alaves' defensive weaknesses.
Alaves vs Osasuna Betting Predictions
Primary Bet:Over 2.5 Goals @ 13/10
Deportivo Alaves and Osasuna's recent form points strongly towards a high-scoring affair. Their head-to-head meetings average three goals per match, and Osasuna have found the net in eight consecutive fixtures, highlighting their attacking consistency. Alaves, meanwhile, average 0.81 goals per match at home, while Osasuna score 1.2 goals per match on the road. This combined scoring potential aligns well with the "over 2.5 goals" market, which offers a solid probability of 63.54%. Both sides are in need of points, which should encourage an open, attacking approach, further supporting this bet's value.
Secondary Bet:Home Win @ 21/10
For the secondary bet, Alaves' home advantage and Osasuna's struggles on the road (2 wins, 9 draws, 7 losses this season) make a "home win" an appealing option. Alaves have won four of their last 16 home encounters against Osasuna, and when leading 1-0 at home, they convert 70% of those leads into victories. While Alaves have struggled to break their recent winless run against Osasuna, the visitors' vulnerabilities away from home and Alaves' motivation to capitalise on this opportunity add weight to this selection. However, punters should remain cautious of Alaves' inconsistency in front of goal at home.
