Real Madrid vs Athletic Bilbao predictions & betting tips

The Santiago Bernabeu will host a high-stakes LaLiga clash this Sunday as Real Madrid face Athletic Bilbao in a contest that could shape the race for Champions League qualification. Real Madrid, currently second in the league, aim to strengthen their position, while fourth-placed Athletic Bilbao see this as a vital opportunity to close the gap. With both sides vying for crucial points, the outcome could have far-reaching implications for their seasons.

Real Madrid approach the fixture with inconsistent form, securing just one win in their last five matches (L W L L D). However, their home record at the Bernabeu remains formidable, boasting 12 wins, one draw, and only two losses this campaign. Athletic Bilbao, by contrast, arrive in Madrid unbeaten in their last six outings (W D D D W), underpinned by defensive resilience that has seen them keep four consecutive clean sheets. The contrasting trajectories of the two teams add an extra layer of intrigue to this encounter.

Key players are set to take centre stage, with Kylian Mbappe and Oihan Sancet leading their respective attacks. Mbappe, LaLiga's top scorer with 22 goals, continues to be a constant menace in front of goal, while Sancet, with 15 strikes this season, has been pivotal in Athletic Bilbao's push for a top-four finish. Supporting them are Jude Bellingham and Inaki Williams, whose contributions in midfield and attack could prove decisive in a game likely to be settled by fine margins.

Historically, Real Madrid have dominated this fixture, winning 25 of the last 32 home meetings against Athletic Bilbao. The visitors have not triumphed at the Bernabeu since 2005, a psychological barrier they will be eager to overcome. However, with their recent form and defensive solidity, Athletic Bilbao may sense this is their best chance to rewrite history. Fans can expect an intense battle as both teams fight to keep their Champions League dreams alive.

Real Madrid - Athletic Bilbao Key Facts

• Real Madrid have an impressive home record against Athletic Bilbao, winning 25 of their last 32 encounters at the Santiago Bernabéu, with a dominant goal difference of 82-24, making them strong favourites for this match.

• Athletic Bilbao have struggled historically against Real Madrid, winning only 1 of their last 5 La Liga games against them, which highlights their difficulties in securing points in this fixture.

• Real Madrid have not lost at home to Athletic Bilbao in their last 20 meetings, indicating a significant psychological advantage that could influence the outcome of the match.

Betting Predictions

Primary bet: Home Win @ 4/6

Real Madrid’s impressive record against Athletic Bilbao at the Santiago Bernabéu makes the home win a standout option. They have triumphed in 25 of their last 32 home encounters with Bilbao and are enjoying a strong home campaign this season, with 12 wins, 1 draw, and just 2 losses. Bilbao, meanwhile, have not managed an away victory against Real Madrid since 2005, a statistic that underscores the hosts’ dominance in this fixture. While Bilbao are currently on a six-match unbeaten run, their historical struggles at the Bernabéu and Real Madrid’s formidable home form make this a highly attractive bet.

Secondary bet: Over 2.5 Goals @ 8/11

The secondary bet of over 2.5 goals is well-supported by Real Madrid’s attacking firepower, as they average 2.75 goals per match at home. Fixtures between these two sides typically produce an average of 2.2 goals, and with Kylian Mbappé spearheading the attack with 22 goals this season, the potential for a high-scoring affair is significant. Although Bilbao have shown defensive solidity of late, their failure to score in 3 of their last 15 away matches suggests Real Madrid could dominate proceedings, further reinforcing the value of this selection.