AC Milan vs Atalanta predictions & betting tips

The Giuseppe Meazza is set to host a pivotal Serie A clash on Sunday, 20 April 2025, as AC Milan take on Atalanta in a fixture that could prove decisive for both sides' seasons. AC Milan, currently 9th in the table, are desperate to revive their European qualification hopes after a campaign marked by inconsistency. Meanwhile, Atalanta, sitting 3rd, are determined to cement their place in the Champions League spots. With both teams displaying mixed recent form—AC Milan recording W D D L W and Atalanta W L L L W—the stakes are as high as ever.

Historically, AC Milan hold a slight edge in this rivalry, with four wins from the last 12 meetings. However, Atalanta have had the upper hand in recent encounters, winning three of the last five, including a narrow 1-0 triumph in their previous clash. This shift underscores Atalanta’s growing confidence against their Milanese counterparts, despite AC Milan’s traditionally strong record at home. Matches between these sides have averaged three goals, promising supporters an exciting, high-scoring contest.

Key players are likely to play a decisive role in this encounter. AC Milan’s attacking consistency, having scored in their last 11 matches, will be vital as they aim to breach Atalanta’s defence. On the other hand, Atalanta’s Mateo Retegui, with an impressive 23 goals this season, remains a constant danger in front of goal. Defensive frailties on both sides mean contributions from Tijani Reijnders for Milan and Retegui for Atalanta could be game-changing.

This match carries significant implications for the Serie A standings. A victory for AC Milan would reignite their European ambitions, while Atalanta are keen to maintain their Champions League trajectory. With AC Milan’s home win rate at just 35% when leading and Atalanta boasting superior away form, the psychological and tactical battles will be as crucial as the action on the pitch. Expect a fiercely contested showdown with everything to play for.

AC Milan - Atalanta Key Facts

• Primary bet: Over 2.5 goals @ 1.85

• The average number of goals in matches between AC Milan and Atalanta BC is 3, with both teams scoring an average of 1.4 and 1.6 goals respectively. This statistical trend supports the likelihood of a high-scoring game, making the over 2.5 goals bet a favorable option.

• Secondary bet: Atalanta BC or Draw @ 1.90

• Atalanta BC have lost only 1 of their last 5 encounters against AC Milan across all competitions, winning 3 and drawing 1. Additionally, AC Milan have won just 1 of their last 5 Serie A games against Atalanta BC. These records suggest a strong performance from Atalanta BC, making a bet on them to win or draw a viable choice.

Betting Predictions

Primary bet: Over 2.5 goals @ 4/6

The clash between AC Milan and Atalanta promises to deliver an entertaining, goal-filled spectacle, making "Over 2.5 goals" the standout betting option. With a strong 78.85% probability based on current form, this selection is further reinforced by their head-to-head history, which averages three goals per match. AC Milan have been prolific at home, netting an average of 1.97 goals per game, while Atalanta are equally impressive on their travels, scoring 1.93 goals per away fixture. Although both sides have shown occasional defensive vulnerabilities, their attacking prowess should dominate proceedings, offering excellent value for this market.

Secondary bet: Both Teams To Score: Yes @ 8/15

The secondary bet, "Both Teams To Score: Yes," also holds significant appeal, supported by a 59.63% probability and consistent scoring patterns. AC Milan have found the net in 11 consecutive matches, while Atalanta have averaged 1.6 goals per match against Milan historically. Despite the odd scoring lapse, the attacking form of both teams, combined with their history of high-scoring encounters, strongly suggests both sides will get on the scoresheet. This selection complements the primary recommendation, providing an additional angle for bettors seeking value in what promises to be a thrilling fixture.